Polling Shows Ryan Ripe For Upset in Ohio’s 13th District

Clout Research recently completed a survey of 581 likely voters in Ohio’s 13th Congressional District. The survey was conducted June 23‐27, 2018 and has a margin of error of ±4.06%. The memorandum below reviews the key findings of the poll. The survey was sponsored by Chris DePizzo for Congress.

1. President Trump is more popular than Nancy Pelosi in the 13th District.
President Trump’s 47% approval rating in the 13th District is higher than his approval nationally according to the latest RealClearPolitics average of 43%. Only 38% of voters have a favorable view of Nancy Pelosi. Among Independent voters, Nancy Pelosi’s image is significantly underwater, with only 22% viewing her favorably and almost 70% unfavorably, a net of about -47. President Trump fares almost 30 points better among self-described Independents.

2. Blue-Collar voters abandon Tim Ryan for Republican Chris DePizzo.
Even as an unknown opponent, blue-collar voters prefer Chris DePizzo over Tim Ryan, 56% to 36%.  Once blue-collar voters learn more about DePizzo, his lead over Ryan balloons to +25%.

3. Once union voters learn more about DePizzo, they prefer him over Ryan.

After learning more about both candidates, union voters (public, trade and service) prefer DePizzo to Ryan 47% to 36%. DePizzo’s story as a first generation college graduate who has helped create jobs and wants to deliver an aggressive new leadership to the 13th District resonates with union voters who hand him an 11-point lead on the ballot.

4. Once they learn more, middle class voters prefer DePizzo over Ryan.
Although Ryan is much better known in the district, having 81% name identification compared to DePizzo’s 23%, Ryan only leads DePizzo 51% to 44% among middle class voters. After these voters learn more about DePizzo, they prefer him to Ryan 49% to 45%, a net +11 point move toward DePizzo on the ballot.

5. Ryan’s approval is weak. Once better known, DePizzo’s approval is strong.

Never having faced a competitive election before, Ryan’s approval in the District has significantly weakened, with only 51% of voters having a favorable view of Ryan. Amazingly, even members of the Democratic Party only give Ryan a 60% favorable rating. Those voters who learn just a little more about DePizzo, give him a 62% approval rating.